Citizens for a Strong NH’s Latest Poll:
Scott Brown leads Senator Jeanne Shaheen by almost 2 points: 45.9% to 44.3%
(September 15, 2014) – Today, Magellan Strategies BR released the results of a New Hampshire statewide survey conducted September 10-11, 2014. The automated survey of 2,214 likely voters has a margin of error of +/- 2.0%. The survey was commissioned by Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire.
- Scott Brown leads Jeanne Shaheen by almost 2 points (45.9% Brown/44.3% Shaheen/9.8% undecided) in the U.S. Senate race.
- Terrorism and border security trump Obamacare as most important issues.
- Obama’s job approval drops 3 points.
- Republicans have a 10 point lead on the generic ballot.
Brown’s lead is in part the result of solidifying the GOP base.
- Brown’s support among Republicans has grown by 5 points since July. He now leads Shaheen among registered Republicans by 64 points (79% Brown/14% Shaheen/7% undecided). More important for Brown’s campaign is the fact that his support among Republican voters has intensified. In July, Brown’s overall support among Republicans, 74%, was the sum of 49% definitely Brown and 25% probably Brown. Currently, Brown’s overall support among Republican voters is the sum of 68% definitely Brown and 11% probably Brown.
Scott Brown’s lead is also the result of his growing support among women, independents and soft Democrats.
- Shaheen’s lead among female voters has declined by 42% since July. In July, Shaheen led among females by 19 points (34% Brown/53% Shaheen/13% undecided). Currently, she leads among female voters by 11 points (39% Brown/50% Shaheen/11% undecided).
- In July, Shaheen led Brown among independent voters by 11 points (35% Brown/46% Shaheen/19% undecided). Currently, her lead has been cut to 1 point (42% Brown/43% Shaheen/15% undecided).
- Shaheen’s support among soft Democrats has dropped 18 points since July. In July, Shaheen led among soft Democrats by 45 points (22% Brown/68% Shaheen/10% undecided). Currently Shaheen leads by only 19 points (31% Brown/50% Shaheen/18% undecided).
The protracted negative political environment is beginning to cut deeper into key swing voting groups’ attitudes and opinions, which is shaping a GOP friendly electorate.
- Republican support on the generic ballot has increased by 4.5 points. The generic Republican candidate now leads by 10 points.
- Among independent voters, the generic GOP candidate now leads by 10 points (40% GOP candidate/30% Democrat candidate/30% undecided). In July, the generic GOP candidate led by only 3.8 points (32.4% GOP candidate/28.6% Democrat candidate/38.9% undecided).
- Among female voters, the generic GOP candidate now leads by 1 point (42% GOP candidate/41% Democrat candidate/16% undecided). In July, the generic GOP candidate was down 6 points among female voters (36% GOP candidate/42% Democrat candidate/22% undecided).
Among undecided voters, Shaheen will have a steeper hill to climb.
- % of undecided voter who approve of President Obama’s job performance: 11%
- % of undecided voter who think things in the country are going in the right direction: 19%
- % of undecided voters who have a favorable opinion of Shaheen: 23%